Title: Welcome to Week 5 — is anything ever "due"?
Course: Introduction to Statistics (18-Week Generic Edition)

Hi everyone,

Quick story before the week starts. One night in 1913, at a Monte Carlo roulette table, black came up twenty-six times in a row. As the streak grew, bettors piled fortunes on red — it had to be due — and the wheel, which had no memory of any of it, took everything. This week you learn exactly why they lost, and why the same reasoning quietly costs people money, points, and arguments every day.

This week — Probability Foundations — we tackle the big question: What does "a 1-in-6 chance" actually promise — and what does it never promise? Last week you finished the describing-data half of the course with two-way tables and the correlation-isn't-causation warning. Now those same tables become probability machines, and five small rules — NOT, OR, AND, GIVEN, plus the 0-to-1 scale — turn chance from a feeling into a computation.

Three things not to miss: 1. Chapter 5 is your primary reading — start there; every rule arrives with a worked example you'll reuse all week. 2. Data Lab 5 has you roll a virtual die 500 times in your spreadsheet and watch the long run keep its promise live on your screen — then catch your chatbot if it flirts with the "it's due" fallacy. Due at the end of Week 5. 3. Discussion 5 — "The Lucky Streak Problem" — wants the chance belief you actually hold (a lucky ritual, a due number, a hot streak) interrogated with this week's tools. Initial post two days before the week ends, so classmates have time to reply.

Also in the module: Lecture Tutorial 5 (your AI tutor drills all five rules — submit the share link and summary), quick ungraded practice, Quiz 5 (closed to AI), and Assignment 5 — "What Are the Odds?"

One promise: nothing this week needs more math than counting and fractions. The hard part isn't calculation — it's unlearning what your gut insists about streaks. Open the Start Here / Module Overview page first — it lays out everything in order with due points.

See you in the course!