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Week 10 · Module overview

Week 10 — Causal Reasoning

Critical Thinking Free sample edition

Welcome to your Week 10 Start Here page.

Why this matters

A nursing student reading a headline that links a habit to better health and a business major asked whether an ad campaign caused a sales jump both need to ask what else could explain the pattern before calling it a cause.

In plain language

This week is about claims that one thing makes another happen, and the question to ask of each one is what else could explain the pattern. Two things that tend to go together show a correlation (a pattern, not yet a cause). A causal claim says one of them brings about the other. You will check three other explanations, see why "it came first" is not enough, and learn when a chain of predicted steps deserves to be taken seriously. These tests help you decide whether a cause has been shown or only guessed.

  • Already covered: Week 7 set a fallacy apart from a false premise, and Week 9 judged samples.
  • This week: correlation and causation, the three rivals, the hot-weather table, post hoc, the slippery slope, and Mill's methods.
  • How they connect: a causal claim compares two groups, and each group is a sample.
  • Where we're going next: Week 11, Numbers in the News.

Focus

When does a pattern between two things show that one causes the other?

By the end of this module, you should be able to:

  • [ ] check a correlation for a confounding factor, reverse causation, and coincidence
  • [ ] hold one factor fixed and say whether a gap survives
  • [ ] spot post hoc and test a slippery slope link by link
  • [ ] work Mill's methods of agreement and difference

To-do

Plan your week

  1. Read Chapter 10 (about 40 minutes), then the lecture and slides.
  2. Work the lecture tutorial (60–90 minutes) and the practice set (about 20 minutes).
  3. Do the Argument Workshop (about 90 minutes), the discussion, and the assignment.
  4. Take the quiz.

This week's checkpoint: explain why the hot-weather table's 56 percent against 32 percent does not show that ice cream causes sunburn.

You've got this

Take it in order, and ask your instructor if a step snags.

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