Week 14 Quiz

Two illustrative posts each rest on one student's story: one says overnight study helped a student's grades, and the other says an all-nighter hurt a student's exam. A student who favors overnight hours accepts the first post and dismisses the second as "only one story". What is the best description of this reasoning?

Select one.

• Fair skepticism, because the second post really is only one story and the first one is not
• Confirmation bias in the search, because the student found both posts by looking for one side
• Motivated reasoning, because the same kind of evidence is held to a stricter standard when it goes against the student's view
• Sound reasoning, because a student is entitled to weigh evidence by how well it fits a view already held

In Wason's (1960) rule-discovery task, participants were told that the triple 2, 4, 6 fits a rule. What was the rule?

Select one.

• Any ascending sequence, with each number larger than the one before
• Add 2 each time, starting from any even number and climbing in steps of two
• Even numbers only, in any order
• Each number is double the one before it

An illustrative player guesses that the rule behind 2, 4, 6 is "add 2 each time" and has already tested 8, 10, 12 and 20, 22, 24, getting a "yes" both times. Which next triple is a disconfirming test of the guess?

Select one.

• 30, 32, 34, because it uses much larger numbers than any triple the player has tested so far
• 7, 9, 11, because it switches from even numbers to odd numbers
• 100, 102, 104, because a very large triple is the hardest test of any rule
• 1, 5, 20, because it breaks the add-2 pattern and could get a "yes" anyway

An illustrative student who favors overnight library hours searched with 3 phrases, each about the benefits of late-night study, and found 10 sources: 8 favor overnight hours and 2 support the objection. What does the lean of 8 to 2 tell you?

Select one.

• The evidence favors overnight hours, because most of the sources the student found agree with that side of the question
• It may reflect the one-sided search phrases more than the question, so the student should search for the other side too
• The 2 sources that support the objection are wrong, because they are outnumbered four to one
• Nothing at all, because sources found online can never count as evidence

An illustrative jacket's tag reads "was 200 dollars, now 120". What is the discount, in dollars and as a percent of the old price?

Select one.

• 80 dollars, which is 80 percent off
• 120 dollars, which is 60 percent off
• 80 dollars, which is 40 percent off
• 80 dollars, which is 67 percent off

An illustrative team says it is sure a group project will take 6 days. Its last 3 projects took 9, 10, and 8 days. What is the average of the last 3 projects, and what does it suggest about the plan?

Select one.

• 9 days, so the plan of 6 days is overconfident by about 3 days
• 8 days, so the plan of 6 days is about right for this team
• 27 days, so the team should plan almost a month for this project
• 10 days, so the plan of 6 days is overconfident by about 4 days

After a news story about a plane crash, an illustrative traveler decides that flying is too dangerous and drives instead. Which idea best explains the traveler's judgment?

Select one.

• Anchoring, because the news story set a starting number that kept the traveler's estimate of the danger too close to it
• Overconfidence, because the traveler is too sure that driving will be safe
• Confirmation bias, because the traveler searched only for evidence about crashes
• The availability heuristic, because a vivid crash is easy to recall and ease of recall is not frequency

Which work described the availability heuristic and anchoring?

Select one.

• Wason (1960), "On the failure to eliminate hypotheses in a conceptual task"
• Tversky and Kahneman (1974), "Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases"
• Mill (1843), A System of Logic
• Locke (1690), An Essay Concerning Human Understanding

A student who favors overnight library hours considers the opposite. Which version states the strongest objection in standard form, under the principle of charity?

Select one.

• O1: The objectors want students to fail their exams. So, OC: The library should close at night.
• O1: Some people dislike the library. O2: Disliked places should close. So, OC: The library should close at night.
• O1: Overnight hours encourage all-night studying. O2: Losing sleep can hurt exam performance. So, OC: Keeping the library open overnight would help students harm themselves.
• O1: The library costs money. So, OC: The library should never be open late.

On the running question's argument map, where does the strongest objection go once it is written in standard form?

Select one.

• As an arrow marked "against" pointing at C, the running question's conclusion
• As a supplied premise that works together with P1, P2, and P3 to support C on the map
• As an independent premise that gives C some support on its own
• Nowhere, because a map shows only the arguer's own premises and conclusion